How BetShare helps on Bettings
Do you have any hot tips or some insider information? Or maybe you’ve done some research and come up with a system that can’t go wrong? Perhaps it’s just your thoughts to back up on which horse/team/person.
BetShare is a new way to share your sports and racing tips with your friends. BetShare is letting bettors identify what rate of bets on either side of the market has fallen. If you understand the Crowd’s Wisdom, you’ll know there’s value in this.
Crowd’s Wisdom
Faced with doubt before making a bet, believing the crowd’s wisdom can be beneficial. In the end, the concept is that the larger the range of views, the less likely it is that the mainstream opinion is incorrect. Inaccurate voices from above drown each other out, creating a common consensus.
Merging Data: The case study of Kansas City Royals
If you’re looking to outshine others crowd, the only way is by consolidating data sources to look for patterns. While the percentage of bets alone is a good base, when combined with other information, it can become an even more powerful indicator. Information is said to be power; data is also, and the information to produce the data can be enormously profitable. It all became painfully evident when we saw a surprising trend appear in the Kansas City Royals’ latest MLB playoff games.
Kansas City has been underdogs in the MLB playoffs, according to the market, the market had 3 games where the betting was shockingly biased against them.
In fact, so amazingly, they instantly checked the numbers with an external source, and then examined at the market behavior to make sure the stats were right. What they thought, for the wise bettor, was what would have been a eureka moment. By analyzing this diagram (Data is for Kansas City Royals only), you’ll understand why:
Three times, the percentage of bets on KC was in single digits. They hadn’t seen that many single-digit events in any big markets in the months we were running BetShares and in those three games, the lines were barely moving against the Royals, if at all.
Money moves the markets, and if the market hasn’t moved, the amount of money will be equally equal on either side. In a situation where only 5 percent of bets are on one side, and 95 percent on the other, the overall wagered sums on each side are most likely close, in which situation the 5 percent average bet is nothing short of tremendous. It is well known that one practice of sharp (big) betters is to fade the crowd; when you realize that the market gave the best price on the market to opponents of the Royals in all three games, you understand why the crowd was betting against Kansas City, and what those sharps saw to keep the market in charge.
We’ve asked one of the MLB lead traders how far the line would shift if all those bets were the same size. He calculated that this would reflect a 30-40 percent likelihood change, so 60-80 percent. Those bets were probably very high on the Royals.
In short, the synthesis of BetShares and market activity gives us a good insight into who’s betting where and why? Where are the sharps? Where are the arbitrage betting? Where are the audiences? Where is the big money in there? You have free knowledge on which to base your responses, and even if you don’t know the game well, you can use the data to make an intelligent bet.
That’s not to say you’re always supposed to fade the public, but it’s knowledge, and clearly, it can give tremendous value. We are excited to see if you are going to use that.
